Guessing Strategy

Because the LSAT does not assess a scoring penalty for incorrect answer
choices, you should always guess on any question that you cannot complete
during the allotted time. However, because some answer choices are more likely
to occur than others, you should not guess randomly. The following tables
indicate the frequency of appearance of Logical Reasoning answer choices over
the years.
All Logical Reasoning Answer Choices June 1991 - June 2004*
A% B% C% D% E%
% appearance
of each answer 18.3 20.8 20.4 21.6 18.8
choice throughout
the entire section
*These statistics do not include the unreleased February 1998, February 1999, February
2001, February 2002, February 2003, and February 2004 LSAT administrations.
The table above documents the percentage each answer choice appeared as a
percentage of all Logical Reasoning answer choices between June 1991 and
June 2004 inclusive. If history holds, when guessing on the LSAT Logical
Reasoning section, you would be best served by always guessing answer
choice (D). Do not choose random answer choices; do not put in a pattern such
as A-B-C-D-E etcetera. Although guessing answer choice (D) does not
guarantee you will get the questions correct, if history is an indicator then
guessing answer choice (D) gives you a better chance than guessing randomly.
Consider the following comparison of students guessing on five consecutive
answer choices:
Correct Student #1 Student #2 Student #3
Answer Answer Answer Answer
Choice Choices Choices Choices
(Pattern) (Random) (All D’s)
B A D D
D B C D
E C A D
A D E D
C E B D
# Correct = 0 0 1
Although one question may not seem significant, it adds up over four sections,
and depending on where you are in the scoring scale, it can increase your score
several points. And every point counts! By guessing answer choice (D), you
increase your chances of getting extra answers correct.
The next table summarizes the percentage appearance of answer choices in just
the last five answer choices of the Logical Reasoning section.
Last Five Answer Choices Per Logical Reasoning Section June 1991 - June
2004*
A% B% C% D% E%
% appearance
of each answer 14.9 19.2 18.3 24.3 23.4
choice in the
last five answer choices
of the Logical Reasoning section
*These statistics do not include the unreleased February 1998, February 1999, February
2001, February 2002, February 2003, and February 2004 LSAT administrations.
Within the last five questions, the guessing strategy is still the same: answer
choice (D). Notice the significant statistical deviation of answer choice (A).
Answer choice (A) is not a good answer choice to choose within the last five
answer choices!
The statistics in this second table have a greater variation because the sample
(470 total questions) is smaller.
Please keep in mind that the advice above holds only for pure guessing. If you
are attempting to choose between two answer choices, do not choose on the
basis of statistics alone!
On a related note, if you are a strong test taker who correctly answers most
questions but occasionally does not finish a section, quickly review the answer
choices you have previously selected and use the answer that appears least as
your guessing answer choice. For example, if you have completed twenty
questions in a section, and your answers contain a majority of (A)’s, (C)’s,
(D)’s, and (E)’s, guess answer choice (B) for all of the remaining questions.