Sometimes the subject matter of a passage may make it appear at first sight that an
argument is being presented when it is not. Consider these two passages, one of which can
be construed as an argument, whereas the other cannot.
The number of crimes reported to the police is rising. The overall crime rate may not
be rising. Traditionally, only a quarter of what most people regard as crime has been
notified to the police.
Most crime is committed by those aged under 21. But most people aged under 21
are not criminals. Some people aged over 21 are persistent offenders.
Let us consider the first passage and ask what main point it is making. Does it try to
convince us that the number of crimes reported to the police is rising? It presents
no evidence for this, but simply presents it as a fact. Does it try to convince us that
traditionally, only a quarter of what most people regard as crime has been notified to the
police? Again, no evidence is offered for this. Does it offer evidence for the claim that
the overall crime rate may not be rising? Well, it gives us information which shows
that this is a possibility. The fact that reported crime is rising may make us suspect that
crime is rising overall. But when we are told that there has been a tendency for only a
quarter of what is regarded as crime to be reported, we can see that if this tendency has
changed in such a way that a greater fraction of what is perceived as crime is now reported,
then the overall crime rate may not be rising after all. We can write this argument as
follows:
Traditionally, only a quarter of what most people regard as crime has been notified
to the police. So, although the number of crimes reported to the police is rising, the
overall crime rate may not be rising.
Notice that the original version of this passage did not contain any of the ‘argument
indicator’ words which we have listed, but it is nevertheless an argument.
Now let us look at the second passage. What does it aim to get us to believe? It presents
three comments about statistics on crime, each of which, in a sense, it aims to get us to
believe, since it asserts them as being true. However, it does not have a single major point
to make, in the sense that none of the statements supports any of the others. You will see
this if you try for yourself writing out the three possible ways of treating one of the
statements as a conclusion. So this is a passage in which three pieces of information about
the same subject-matter are not linked in any process of reasoning; but because of the kind
of information presented, that is to say, because it refers to statistics, we may at first be
tempted to think of it as an argument, because the use of statistics is a common move in
argument. We need to be aware, then, that argument is not just a matter of presenting
information – it is, rather, a matter of presenting a conclusion based on information or
reasons.
Summary: Is it an argument?
1 Look for conclusion indicator words, e.g. ‘so’, ‘therefore’, ‘must’, ‘cannot’,
‘should’.
2 If there are no conclusion indicator words, look at each sentence in turn and
ask, ‘Does the rest of this passage give any extra information which tells me why
I should believe this?’ If the answer is ‘no’, then the sentence is not a conclusion;
if the answer is ‘yes’, then the sentence is a conclusion.
3 If none of the sentences in a passage is a conclusion, then the passage is not
an argument: no conclusion, no argument. If one of the sentences is a
conclusion supported by reason(s) in the rest of the passage, then the passage
is an argument.
4 When you have found a conclusion, rewrite the passage with the conclusion
at the end, introduced by ‘So’. Read through the rewritten passage. If it makes
sense, then you can be sure that it is an argument.
(Do not worry at this stage about whether the reasons are true or about whether
they give conclusive support to the conclusion.)
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