Situations That Can Lead to Errors of Causality

In this example, the two events could simply be correlated. A positive correlation is a
relationship where the two values move together. A negative correlation is one where the two
values move in opposite directions, such as with age and eyesight (the older you get, the
worse your eyesight gets).
There are two scenarios that tend to lead to causal conclusions in Logical
Reasoning questions:
1. One event occurs before another
When one event occurs before another event, many people fall into the
trap of assuming that the first event caused the second event. This does
not have to be the case, as shown by the following famous example:
Every morning the rooster crows before the sun rises. Hence,
the rooster must cause the sun to rise.
The example contains a ludicrous conclusion, and shows why it is
dangerous to simply assume that the first event must have caused the
second event.
2. Two (or more) events occur at the same time
When two events occur simultaneously, many people assume that one
event caused the other. While one event could have caused the other, the
two events could be the result of a third event, or the two events could
simply be correlated but one does not cause the other.
The following example shows how a third event can cause both events:
The consumption of ice cream has been found to correlate with
the murder rate. Therefore, consuming ice cream must cause one
to be more likely to commit murder.
As you might imagine, the conclusion of the example does not have to
be true (yes, go ahead and eat that Ben and Jerry’s!), and the two events
can be explained as the effects of a single cause: hot weather. When the
weather is warmer, ice cream consumption and the murder rate tend to
rise (this example is actually true, especially for large cities).